Greek economy expected to reach “A” credit rating by 2029

Τhe Greek economy could “return” to the A rating category, where it stood in 2009, by the end of 2029, according to the Bank of Greece.

As noted, the improvement in fiscal figures and the strong growth rates of the Greek economy have led to enhanced fundamentals, resulting in successive upgrades of Greece’s sovereign credit rating over the last years.

“For the period 2026–2029, a further improvement in key factors is expected, primarily in public finances and secondarily in macroeconomic indicators. Should this materialize, it will lead to additional upgrades of sovereign creditworthiness, with positive implications for the Greek State, as well as for banks and businesses,” the Bank of Greece emphasized in its annual report. It further added that maintaining political stability and continuing reforms in institutions such as the judiciary and public administration are considered critical factors, with tangible benefits for the Greek economy.

It is worth noting that all rating agencies currently assess Greece’s sovereign credit rating at two notches below the A category, with the exception of Moody’s, which rates the Greek economy three notches below A. In the coming days, the announcement of Standard & Poor’s is expected on April 24, followed by Fitch Ratings on May 8.

Rating agencies’ forecasts for the Greek economy

The three major agencies—Fitch, Moody’s and S&P—forecast positive GDP growth for 2026 and 2027, in the range of 2.0%–2.3% for 2026 and 1.9%–2.1% for 2027.

Based on the assumptions of the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) 2026–2029 of the Ministry of Finance, a gradual deceleration in economic activity is expected, with growth rates projected to ease from 2.4% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, 1.6% in 2028 and 1.3% in 2029.

Rating agencies’ projections for fiscal figures are relatively aligned, anticipating the continuation of fiscal discipline through 2027.

According to the MTFF 2026–2029 projections, the general government budget is expected to remain broadly balanced, with fiscal revenues covering expenditures. Combined with lower interest costs, public debt is projected to decline to 119% of GDP by the end of 2029, from approximately 146% at the end of 2025.