Moody’s Carlson holds key to Greece’s next sovereign rating decision
The trading session on Friday may reasonably be dominated by the rebalancing of the Greek stock market, but Moody’s lead analyst for Greece’s sovereign rating, Sarah Carlson, may have a different view.
Carlson is due to publish her second 2026 report on the country’s sovereign credit rating which is unlikely to go unnoticed by investors.
The analyst has a reputation for being tough and conservative, resisting easy upgrades. She was among the analysts who signed off on downgrades of a number of major eurozone economies during the 2010s debt crisis. More recently, she was also behind the decision to shift the US outlook to negative, despite political and other pressures.
The same approach has applied to Greece. In the summer of 2010, the US analyst downgraded Greece to junk status. Even now, with the country’s economic situation having changed dramatically for the better, Carlson remains cautious and measured, reflecting Moody’s broader approach.
Her latest rating for Greek government bonds, according to the March report, is Baa3 with a stable outlook, one notch below the ratings assigned by the other major agencies. The rating has remained unchanged since March 2025, when Greece regained investment-grade status after 15 years.
Whether Carlson decides to upgrade Greece on Friday evening, bringing Moody’s rating into line with the rest of the market, remains a puzzle.
Her focus on macroeconomic challenges and structural risks, coupled with the 2027 parliamentary elections, could clearly give Moody’s reason to hold off on an upgrade.
On the other hand, Carlson has repeatedly praised Greece’s progress on issues including the reduction of public debt, stronger growth and the acceleration of reforms. Those positive assessments could lay the groundwork for a future upgrade — if not tomorrow, then at least in 2027.
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