Robust exports drive growth in bulk carrier sector

The bulk carrier market is going through one of its most dynamic phases in recent months, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) returning above the psychological threshold of 3,000 points for the first time since 2023.

The sector is gaining fresh momentum from a combination of strong iron ore exports, increased tonne-mile demand, and the unexpected resilience of coal within the global energy mix. Despite some individual reservations and signs of softening on certain routes, the overall picture remains clearly upward, with larger vessels setting the tone and smaller segments following.

In the week just ended, the BDI recorded a weekly increase of 9.08%, with Thursday’s reading of 3,034 points marking a nearly three-year high, last seen at the peak in December 2023.

This development in itself reflects the improvement in sentiment in the dry bulk spot market, as all main vessel categories posted gains. The rally was once again led by Capesize vessels, which continue to act as the primary driver of the uptrend. Average daily time charter earnings (TCE) rose to $43,100 per day, up from $35,700 the previous week, while on an annual basis the Capesize segment shows an increase of 149%.

This performance is largely supported by the consistently strong flow of iron ore cargoes from Australia and, in particular, Brazil, which has significantly strengthened Atlantic basin returns.

The bulk carrier market is also affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, as difficulties in the dry bulk vessel transits through this maritime corridor is reshaping trade flows and increasing uncertainty. Between May 1 and May 5, only 15 dry bulk vessel transits were recorded.

Although the dry bulk shipping market is not as dependent on Hormuz as LNG or crude oil, disruptions in the energy market are indirectly affecting bulk carriers, primarily through the strengthening of coal trade.

Tightness in the natural gas market and disruptions in energy flows are pushing several countries toward increased coal consumption, a development that raises tonne-miles and provides support particularly for Panamax and Capesize vessels.

Despite persistent forecasts of a gradual decline in coal usage, 2026 indicates that this trade has not only failed to disappear, but is in some markets showing renewed strength.

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