Speculation over a major deal in Greece’s banking sector and elections in autumn

Although they cannot be confirmed by official sources, it appears to be expanding among more institutional market participants. In a recent note, Beta said that “investors’ willingness to take risk in Greek equities and bonds is at its highest level in the past two decades.”

It added: “The missing piece to complete the picture is the execution of a major strategic business or corporate transaction, which would become the defining corporate milestone of the 2026 bull market.”

Adding to the speculation is a recent report by Deutsche Bank, which said it could not rule out the possibility of one of Greece’s four systemic banks becoming a takeover target for a banking group from France, Belgium or Austria.

There is also the successful example of UniCredit, which has steadily increased its stake in Alpha Bank since 2023 and now owns nearly 30%. Deutsche Bank, which examined 37 potential cross-border banking combinations in the eurozone, concluded that National Bank of Greece, Eurobank and Piraeus Bank would be a good strategic fit for Austria’s Erste Bank, while the latter two also show strong strategic compatibility with Belgium’s KBC and France’s BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole.

Elections

Although the government has not taken a final decision on calling an early election, speculation about a snap vote this autumn has returned to the political agenda, despite Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ repeated insistence that elections will be held at the end of the government’s four-year term. This column has argued since early June that an October election remains the most likely scenario.

On Thursday, broadcaster Live News said Sept. 27 was the most likely date for the first round of voting, with a second round expected in mid-October. The report cited a series of government moves that it interpreted as preparations for all scenarios, including the activation of the postal voting platform, the procurement of special ballot paper and efforts to complete key legislative initiatives before the autumn.

Constitutional revision is also part of the equation. Following a second parliamentary vote expected in late August, there would no longer be any constitutional obstacle to dissolving parliament, should the prime minister decide to do so. The Thessaloniki International Fair, where the government traditionally unveils its annual economic policy package, follows shortly afterwards.