2026 began with a “legacy” of 5+1 threats

2026 began with shipping in the focus of unprecedented geopolitical turmoil. The fourth quarter of 2025 was one of the most destabilizing periods in recent decades, with the international maritime order suffering serious blows.

Sanctions, military interventions, ship seizures, electronic warfare and systematic undermining of flag institutions create an environment of increased risk, according to a report by shipping analysis firm Windward.

The new year entered with the same “explosive” pace, with the seizure of two tankers by US forces.

The first ship to be seized was the Russian-flagged tanker “Marinera”, after a dramatic chase that lasted more than two weeks in the open Atlantic, while earlier the same day it was announced that the US had seized a second tanker linked to Venezuela, this time in the Caribbean.

Moscow’s first reaction to the seizure of the “Marinera” came from the Ministry of Transport.

In particular, the Russian Ministry of Transport reported that on December 24, 2025, the ship received a temporary permit to sail under the flag of the Russian Federation, based on Russian legislation and the rules of international law, then emphasizing that, according to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, freedom of navigation applies in international waters and no state has the right to use force against ships that are legally registered in the jurisdiction of other states.

“The seized tanker was carrying Russian citizens,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement, demanding that the US treat them humanely and quickly return them to their homeland.

Meanwhile, a tanker bound for Russia was attacked by a drone in the Black Sea, according to a statement from Lloyd’s List Intelligence. The ship requested assistance from the Turkish coast guard and changed course.

Against the backdrop of recent events, Windward analyzed the six biggest geopolitical disruptions affecting shipping.

As highlighted, 2025 ended with 76% of the “shadow fleet” of crude oil tankers under sanctions, while widespread GPS jamming was recorded in four major maritime areas, as well as direct military attacks on merchant ships.

Despite the cessation of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea during the fourth quarter, Ukrainian drones struck four tankers operating in the Russian trade under false flags in December.

US Seizures

In addition to the two latest tanker seizures by the US, Windward reported that the seizure of two unflagged tankers by the US, off the coast of Venezuela, is of particular importance for 2026.

These actions highlighted the legal vulnerability of ships with false or non-existent flags and created a precedent for naval interventions in international waters.

For the first time, the seizure was not limited to economic sanctions, but moved to the level of physical removal of ships from the market.

This development also served as a “guide to action” for European states concerned about the environmental, insurance and geopolitical risks posed by the “shadow fleet”.

In fact, based on the report, the possibility of coordinated European interventions in 2026 is now a realistic scenario.

However, “N” has contacted other analysts, who estimated that such incidents would not continue.

First quarter seems bleak

Winward noted that despite sanctions, global crude and oil product exports reached 44.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 8.7% year-on-year.

At the same time, oil storage “at sea” peaked at 1.3 billion barrels, boosting demand for tankers and temporarily boosting daily revenues for VLCCs to 120,000 dollars in December, before collapsing below 40,000 dollars in early 2026.

According to analysts, the disruptions recorded and related to sanctions, false flags, GPS jamming, military attacks, ship seizures and the protection of critical infrastructure, create an explosive backdrop for the first quarter of 2026.

Indeed, the possible removal of the ceiling on Russian oil, policy divergences between the US, EU and UK and the blurred boundaries between commercial and military shipping signal further instability.